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Several key agricultural commodities could face serious damage if president Donald Trump’s latest announcement – to impose a 30% tariff across the board on all South African exports from the beginning of August – were to come to fruition.
Johann Kotzé, CEO of Agri SA, said today in a press release while the US market, under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), accounts for only a small portion of South Africa’s total agricultural exports (around $488 million or nearly R8,66 billion in 2024), the impact on key commodities would be significant, with a knock-on effect across those value chains.
Strong export focus
According to the National Agricultural Marketing Council (NAMC), South Africa’s agricultural sector’s exports for 2024 amounted to $13,7 billion. On the flip side, South Africa imported $7,4 billion worth of agricultural products in the same year.
The main commodities at risk if the US tariff hike proceeds, are citrus, macadamia nuts, grapes, subtropical fruits, wine, fruit juices, ostrich leather, and other fresh produce.
“While calls for market diversification are valid, supply chains cannot be redirected overnight and will take time to materialise. This highlights the immediate severe impact on regions and producers who are heavily reliant on the US market,” said Kotzé.
Agri SA’s press release emphasised that South Africa’s citrus season runs until October 2025, coinciding with the introduction of the new tariffs. The 30% tariff will elevate the cost of each citrus carton, risking a significant loss of market share to competitors like Chile and Peru. The sector’s dependence on the US market, where around 7 million cartons of citrus (about 100 000 tonnes) are exported annually, is vital for rural employment and economic stability.
While citrus remains the immediate concern, other fruits such as subtropical fruits, table grapes, avocados, macadamia nuts, blueberries, and stone fruits will also be affected, Kotzé added. In some value chains, such as macadamia nuts, significant hectares will be export-ready in the coming years. This emphasises the need for medium- to long-term strategic planning to safeguard these commodities.
South Africa Wine (SA Wine) described Trump’s announcement as a major blow—not only to South Africa’s wine trade, which is annually worth more than R650 million with the US—but also to jobs, sustainability, input suppliers, and growth across the value chain. “Wine, as a discretionary and price-sensitive product, is particularly exposed,” the organisation stated in a press release.
The industry is already grappling with uncertainty and mounting cost pressures, including inflation, logistics challenges, and rising excise duties. The new tariff adds yet another burden.
However, Trump’s announcement has strengthened the South African wine industry’s resolve to accelerate its export diversification strategy—by deepening relationships in other key global markets, sharpening local marketing efforts, and improving supply chain efficiency.
South Africa’s ostrich leather exports, constituting 60% of US-bound shipments, could also face increased costs, affecting key sectors like footwear, Agri SA stated. The impact may not only reduce US demand, but also increase prices in the US market, potentially leading to decreased consumption.
Strategic response needed
Kotzé called Trump’s letter a “wake-up call” for South Africa’s trade policy and agricultural sector. He confirmed Agri SA’s commitment to work with government bodies, industry partners, and international alliances to navigate these challenging trade waters. “Proactive and collaborative efforts will be key to preserving the viability and future growth of South Africa’s agricultural sector.”
Over the medium and long term, Agri SA believes that further diversification of export destinations could mitigate risks associated with geopolitical uncertainties. “South Africa should explore expanding its presence in growing markets, including increased engagement with African nations, ASEAN and the BRICS countries.”
ASEAN countries refer to the ten member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). They are Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.
BRICS is an intergovernmental organisation comprising ten countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates.
South Africa’s participation in global trade markets is significantly impeded by its trade agreements, or lack thereof, with key economic regions such as the ASEAN countries. “These agreements facilitate trade by reducing tariffs and fostering economic integration. However, South Africa faces significant competition from countries that have already established comprehensive trade agreements,” said Kotzé .
Without the development of similar agreements, South African products could be more expensive, reducing their competitiveness. This is further compounded by the lack of Economic Integration Agreements (EIAs) in key markets. EIAs allow deeper cooperation beyond tariffs, such as in regulations and standards, providing competitors with an edge in product acceptance and market integration. Additionally, South Africa needs to work on reducing tariff barriers, particularly in the BRICS and ASEAN markets.
Agri SA added that greater commitment from strategic government departments are needed to achieve market expansion success. It specifically referred to the Department of Trade, Industry, and Competition (DTIC), as this department needs to take the lead with regard to the expansion of exports. Additionally, the National Department of Agriculture (NDA) and the Department of International Relations and Cooperation (DIRCO) also have to put their full force behind the DTIC’s efforts. – Susan Marais, Plaas Media
