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Mere days after president Cyril Ramaphosa declared an economic emergency in South Africa, the Agricultural Conditions Assessment Committee of South Africa (Acac) reported that while the country’s agricultural conditions remained uneven, it is leaning more towards favourable growth for most industries.
Acac, under the stewardship of the National Department of Agriculture (NDA), met on Monday, 13 October 2025, for the third time this year. The Acac comprises various industry and commodity associations (Agbiz, Agri SA, Grain SA, Afma, Sati, CGA, Fruit SA, MPO, Hortgro, SA Wine, Potatoes SA, amongst others), research organisations such as the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (Bfap), and other statistics users such as the SA Reserve Bank and Stats SA.
Acac deliberated, amongst other things, on the statistical matters and methodology for collecting agricultural statistics and on stress-testing the quality of that data, which supports the calculation of the agricultural sector’s quarterly gross domestic product (AgGDP).
The NDA is currently undertaking a benchmarking exercise to review the current methodologies applied in calculating the AgGDP. Furthermore, there will be regular reviews of the data and methods, with technical support from the industry stakeholders where necessary.
Positive realities
Wandile Sihlobo, committee member and chief economist at Agbiz, told AgriOrbit that 2025 was a year of recovery for South Africa’s agricultural sector. “We have seen excellent output in field crops (grains, oilseeds, and sugarcane), fruits and vegetables. We will likely see the benefit of the excellent production figures through the third quarter agricultural growth figures when the GDP data is out.”
The figures in the third quarter will add to the high-frequency data that already reflect this optimism, with the sector’s gross value added to expand by 18,6% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of this year and by 2,5% in the second quarter of the year, Sihlobo said. “The milder growth figures in the second quarter were partly because of the delay in the summer crop harvest. In the third quarter, the sector is expected to show notable growth again.”
Agricultural commodities outlook mostly positive
In field crops, the output is up from the 2023–24 season, boosted by the favourable rainfall and vast planting area. For example, South Africa’s 2024–25 summer grains and oilseed harvest is estimated at 19,94 million tonnes, a 28% year-on-year increase. This encompasses maize, soya beans, sunflower seed, sorghum, dry beans, and groundnuts.
Due to the ample harvest, commodity prices are generally under pressure. The season ran roughly six weeks behind its typical schedule, resulting in some of the produce – typically delivered in the second quarter – being shifted into the third quarter of the year. This delay may boost the gross value-added figures reported for the third quarter.
In terms of sugar cane production, conditions remain favourable, and the 2024–25 crop is higher than the previous season due to the favourable rains and decent planting. Prices are, however, under pressure given that world prices are substantially lower than a year ago.
In the case of winter crops, the season has not been as favourable. The start of the season was marked with a snail infestation in canola-producing regions of the Western Cape, a significant winter crop-producing province of South Africa. Moreover, the drier weather conditions at the end of August and the beginning of September also weighed on the crop.
Still, the production estimates remain decent, with South Africa’s winter crop estimated at 2,77 million tonnes, up 4% from the 2024–25 season. This estimate comprises wheat, barley, canola, oats, and sweet lupines. Winter crop prices have held up better than summer crop prices.
Livestock remains under pressure
Beef and dairy producers continue to face a challenging environment due to foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). The ongoing presence of the disease, coupled with the slow vaccination process, is expected to weigh on the profitability of farming businesses. The widespread impact of FMD has disrupted production, leading to reduced slaughter volumes and lower carcass weights. One positive aspect noted by Acac is the improvement in feed prices following the large soya bean and maize harvest.
Higher beef prices have also provided some support to pork and poultry prices due to consumer substitution. These industries have shorter production cycles and can expand production to make up for beef supply disruptions. The pork and poultry industries also benefit from better feed costs – a major cost driver for them – while remaining concerned about animal diseases in general.
Strong fruit and vegetable production
For fruit, the 2024–25 season has been a period of recovery. Citrus, deciduous fruits, table grapes, and other fruits are showing improved conditions. Overall, harvests and export volumes are significantly higher compared to last year. The Acac also sees better volumes and quality in wine production, with substantial upward revisions in the latest wine grape crop estimates.
The primary concern for horticulture and wine producers remains trade policy, particularly the friction in the US market and the slow pace of export diversification. At the production level, the conditions are favourable and should support third-quarter growth.
The production conditions for vegetables are also fair, benefiting from favourable rainfall. Volumes are up year on year for most major vegetables, but given that the bulk of produce is consumed locally, additional volumes do bring price pressure. Consequently, there are concerns about the profitability of some industries, such as potatoes, where prices have declined rapidly due to the large harvest.
As South Africa starts the 2025–26 summer crop season, Acac also assessed the outlook for input costs. The emerging concern is the rise in the prices of various inputs like fertiliser and the administrative prices, which continue to weigh on the sector. These are a concern given the potential profitability impact. While it’s early in the season, the current production outlook for 2025–26 is also favourable, which may result in further price pressure.
Agribusiness is positive, but…
Sihlobo said this positive sentiment was also seen in the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index, which stood at 63 points in the third quarter. “This is well above the 50-point neutral mark that separates optimism (above 50 points) from pessimism (below 50 points). Due to these abundant harvests, exports have also been encouraging since the start of this year, with agricultural exports reaching US$3,7 billion in the second quarter, a 10% year-on-year increase.”
However, that is not the complete story, and Sihlobo cautions people not to rest too easily in the idea that all is well with South Africa’s agriculture. “The close observers of the sector are aware that this flourishing picture conceals some significant challenges in certain subsectors. The sector’s recovery, while generally uplifting, is uneven.” The major subsector of agriculture – livestock – is strained. “The FMD that many South Africans read about at the start of this year remains a major challenge and constraint for livestock farmers.” – Susan Marais, Plaas Media
