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- Among animal products, the chicken industry holds the largest market share in South Africa.
- Given its economic impact, it is essential to gain a comprehensive understanding of chicken meat consumption patterns in South Africa.
- Total chicken meat consumption during the 2023/24 period is estimated at 2 179 tonnes.
- While this growth is slower than what was seen in the early 2000s, it remains more positive than recent trends.
- Producers may find it encouraging to know that overall meat consumption is expected to grow significantly.
South Africans often proclaim themselves to be meat lovers. Globally, the average meat consumption is estimated at 64kg per capita, while South Africans consume approximately 69kg per capita each year. Among animal products, the chicken industry holds the largest market share in South Africa. As one of the country’s most intensive livestock sectors, it plays a crucial role in adding value to locally produced grains and oilseeds through feed utilisation, and supports a significant number of jobs, not only in farming but across the entire value chain.
Given its economic impact, it is essential to gain a comprehensive understanding of chicken meat consumption patterns in South Africa.
Per capita consumption
The summary of agricultural statistics for South Africa indicates that in 2023/24, per capita consumption of chicken meat was approximately 34,8kg, while egg consumption stood at 7,4kg per capita (Figure 1). To provide a comprehensive view of chicken product consumption, it is essential to consider the per capita consumption of other types of meat as well.
Compared to chicken, red meat consumption was slightly lower, at just under 25kg per capita. The total for 2023/24 includes beef at 16,5kg, sheep and goat meat at approximately 2,7kg, and pork at around 5,7kg per capita.
Examining consumption trends for the different types of meat over time reveals several notable shifts. Per capita beef consumption declined from just over 19kg in 2014/15 to 16,5kg in 2023/24, a decrease of approximately 13%. Consumption of mutton and goat meat fell by 0,9kg per capita over the same period, representing a 25% drop. In contrast, pork consumption increased by around 1,1kg per person – an increase of 23,4% – between 2014/15 and 2023/24.
Chicken meat consumption also saw a decline, decreasing by 3,51kg per capita (9,2%) between 2014/15 and 2023/24, while egg consumption fell by approximately 0,4kg per person.
Figure 1: Per capita meat consumption.
Total consumption
Total chicken meat consumption during the 2023/24 period is estimated at 2 179 tonnes (Figure 2). While this is slightly below the peak of 2 365 tonnes recorded in 2020/21, it remains approximately 110 000 tonnes (5,3%) higher than the total consumption in 2014/15. Domestic production for 2023/24 is projected at 1 879 tonnes, reflecting an increase of around 161 000 tonnes (9,4%) compared to 2014/15.
Total egg production for the 2022/23 period is estimated at 487 000 tonnes, reflecting an increase of 10 000 tonnes compared to 2014/15. Domestic consumption during the same period was estimated at 460 000 tonnes, marking a rise of approximately 26 000 tonnes (6%) from 2014/15. The highest egg production figures were recorded in the 2019/20 season, reaching 594 000 tonnes, while domestic consumption peaked at 552 000 tonnes in that year.
In 2023/24, total pork consumption was estimated at 356 000 tonnes, with domestic production accounting for 346 900 tonnes. Between 2014/15 and 2023/24, pork production grew by approximately 113 900 tonnes, while domestic consumption increased by 104 000 tonnes.
For sheep and goat meat, total consumption in 2023/24 is estimated at 172 000 tonnes, with local production contributing just over 159 000 tonnes. Over the past ten seasons, sheep and goat meat production has declined by roughly 25 500 tonnes, representing a 13,8% decrease.
Figure 2: Total chicken meat production and consumption.
Total beef production in 2023/24 was estimated at 1 055 tonnes, while domestic consumption was projected at 1 033 tonnes. Between 2014/15 and 2023/24, domestic beef production consistently exceeded 1 million kg, peaking at 1 090 tonnes in 2015/16.
The lowest production level during this period was recorded in 2018/19, with 1 001 tonnes produced. Domestic consumption remained above 1 million tonnes throughout the period, reaching a high of 1 079 tonnes in 2015/16. The lowest consumption was recorded in 2018/19, and aligned closely with domestic production levels.
Future expectations
The Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy’s (BFAP) 2024 baseline indicates that per capita consumption of meat and eggs – excluding pork – has declined over the past decade. However, per capita chicken consumption is projected to grow by approximately 7% by 2033, compared to 2021/23 levels. While this growth is slower than what was seen in the early 2000s, it remains more positive than recent trends.
Several factors have contributed to the decline in chicken consumption, including high inflation, which has eroded consumers’ purchasing power, and chicken product prices that have increased at a rate exceeding that of both inflation and pork prices, while some of the cheaper beef cuts have also become more expensive.
Looking ahead, per capita pork consumption is expected to grow by 1% annually over the next decade, while beef consumption is projected to rise by 0,4% per year. Mutton consumption, on the other hand, is expected to decline further in the coming years.
Overall meat consumption is expected to rise from 2021/23 levels through 2033, driven by population growth and urbanisation. However, total mutton consumption is projected to remain stable, with exports playing a more significant role. Mutton exports are anticipated to increase by 2,5 to 7%.
Chicken consumption is forecast to grow by approximately 18%, with imports making up a slightly smaller share of domestic supply. Beef consumption is expected to rise by an estimated 17%, accompanied by an increase in exports of one to two percentage points.
Pork consumption is projected to expand by 20%, though South Africa will continue to be a net importer, with a reduced share of imports by 2033. Meanwhile, egg consumption is set to grow by an estimated 27%, with South Africa maintaining its status as a net exporter of eggs.
South Africa’s per capita meat consumption slightly exceeds the global average. According to the online publication Our World in Data, South Africa is one of only four African countries where annual meat consumption surpasses 60kg per person. Only Seychelles and Gabon reflect higher per capita meat consumption.
South Africans consume significantly more chicken per capita than both the global and African averages, which are estimated at 17 and 7kg per year, respectively. However, fish consumption in South Africa is comparatively lower, averaging around 6kg per person annually – well below the global average of 20kg and the African average of approximately 8,8kg per year.
Conclusion
South Africans can confidently be classified as meat lovers, with a strong preference for both red meat and chicken – the latter accounting for more than half of total meat consumption. In recent years challenging economic conditions, including high inflation and rising interest rates, have led to a decline in per capita consumption across most meat types.
However, projections indicate that per capita meat consumption – excluding mutton – will increase again in the coming years. Producers may find it encouraging to know that overall meat consumption is expected to grow significantly. While reliance on imports (particularly chicken and pork) is anticipated to decrease slightly, exports of beef and mutton are set to increase, presenting promising opportunities for the industry. – Dr WA Lombard, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of the Free State.
For more information and references, send an email to LombardWA@ufs.ac.za.
