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South Africa’s raisin, wine, and sugar industries are already buckling under United States (US) president Donald Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on imports from the African country later this week.
While South Africa’s government continues to push for a trade deal, the US’ 30% tariffs on exports are set to take effect on 7 August.
Raisin concerns
Wessel Lemmer, CEO of Raisins SA, said when comparing South Africa’s export performance between January and June 2025 with the industry’s performance between January and June of last year, exports fell by 60% in the first half of 2025 (2 851 metric tonnes), compared to 7 107 metric tonnes over the same period of 2024.
“This dramatic reduction occurred before any tariffs were implemented, indicating that market forces – not yet tariffs – were already constraining competitiveness,” Lemmer said. However, it is unknown to what extent the anticipation of tariffs, along with policy uncertainty under the Trump administration, may have further dampened demand, as US buyers hedged against future cost risks by reducing or pausing imports in the face of uncertain trade policy outcomes.
In 2024, the US accounted for 19,7% of total South African raisin exports and ranked as the second-largest market. By mid-2025 this dropped to 9%, placing the US as the fifth-largest market, now behind the South African domestic market. Price parity between South African raisins and US domestic raisins was the primary cause of reduced sales. Lemmer said US buyers were choosing the local product – which is more competitively priced and readily available.
The South African raisin industry cannot absorb tariffs at a scale of 30 to 40%. “We cannot afford any tariff to the US – it makes our product uncompetitive,” a local producer, wishing to remain anonymous, said. “Even a 10% tariff will put exports to the US under severe pressure.”
The sharp drop in South African raisin exports to the US in early 2025 already signalled market fragility. With tariffs of 30 to 40% on the horizon, this market may collapse unless US prices rise or duties are reversed, Lemmer warned. “The industry can manage a limited tariff, but anything beyond that is not sustainable. South African raisin exporters have indicated their commitment to the US, but price integrity for farmers cannot be compromised.”
Additionally, the psychological and commercial effect of anticipated tariffs and trade policy uncertainty may already be influencing buyer behaviour, suggesting that even the perception of risk is harming market access, Lemmer said.
Sugar industry’s viability threatened
While South African sugar cane growers are expecting a significantly improved harvest this season, the industry’s economic outlook remains under serious threat due to delays in adjusting South Africa’s import tariff, the flood of cheap imports into the country, and the looming 30% tariff by the US on South African sugar exports.
“The delay in adjusting our own sugar import tariff to reflect current global realities is undermining the competitiveness of local producers,” said Higgins Mdluli, chairperson of SA Canegrowers. “At the same time, the US tariff threatens our access to what has historically been one of our key premium export markets.”
South Africa is currently experiencing a surge in sugar imports. Much of this imported sugar is heavily subsidised in its country of origin, arriving in South Africa at a price far below local production costs, undercutting local growers’ income, and threatening financial sustainability. The likelihood of a 30% tariff on South African products entering the US, further disadvantages South African sugar on the global market.
“We urge government to move swiftly: to revise the import duty in line with current global prices and to prioritise a new trade agreement with the US that safeguards our export potential,” Mdluli concluded.
SA Canegrowers represents over 24 000 small-scale and 1 200 large-scale sugar cane growers in South Africa. These growers provide jobs and economic stability in rural Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal, in areas where opportunities are scarce.
Wine industry concerned, but hopeful
The South Africa Wine team sent out a letter to stakeholders stating that the 30% tariff will also place the country’s wine industry at a significant disadvantage compared to key competitors like the European Union (EU), Argentina, and Chile, which continue to benefit from tariffs as low as 10 to 15%.
However, the industry remains hopeful, stating that the South African government is actively engaging with US counterparts to secure more favourable trade terms. Notably, the official US government executive order stipulates that these modifications shall be effective “for goods entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, on or after 00:01 Eastern Daylight Time, seven days after the date of this order.” This implies an effective implementation at 07:01 South African time on 7 August, potentially giving the industry and government a very narrow but vital window to influence or delay the final implementation.
The Department of Trade, Industry and Competition (DTIC) has also communicated the establishment of an export support desk, which will serve as a direct point of contact for companies affected by the US tariff hike. “Once we have learned more about this initiative, we will share it with our members,” South Africa Wine wrote.
However, the current state of uncertainty is costly for all affected parties, South Africa Wine admitted. “Negotiations are ongoing, and efforts are intensifying to resolve the issue.”
A plea to policy makers
The raisin industry is, however, a tad less positive about South Africa’s handling of the situation. “Recent political statements and postures by the South African government have reportedly deteriorated relations with the US,” Lemmer said, adding that there were concerns South Africa’s alignment with anti-US positions through BRICS may be backfiring. “It seems our government’s tone and alignment are pushing us out of favour with the US… South Africa should reconsider ties with countries opposing US interests.”
Meanwhile, Raisins SA reaffirmed its independent and commercial commitment to a long-standing relationship with US buyers: “It has been good for us to pursue strong commercial relationships with the US over the years. Let us not allow geopolitical postures to damage that.”
While the raisin industry is searching for alternative markets, Lemmer said this would be to the detriment of both South African producers and US buyers who rely on South Africa’s unique product quality. Therefore, Lemmer has asked US officials to exclude raisins from the list of goods subject to tariffs and urged the South African government to actively engage diplomatically with the US to protect agricultural trade. “Agricultural trade should be separated from geopolitical posturing, as producers should not be punished for broader political alignments.”
Johann Kotzé, CEO of Agri SA, echoed Lemmer’s concerns that the tariff situation underscores the urgent need for South Africa to adopt comprehensive and strategic measures to safeguard its agricultural sector and diversify export markets amid evolving global trade dynamics. While the US market, under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), accounts for approximately 4% of South Africa’s total agricultural exports (around US$488 million in 2024), the impact of the tariffs on key commodities such as citrus, macadamia nuts, grapes, wine, ostrich leather, seed, and other fresh produce could have far-reaching consequences across the entire value chain.
South Africa’s agriculture sector remains heavily export dependent, with exports valued at US$13,7 billion in 2024, supporting millions of livelihoods and rural communities. “As we have stated in the past, while calls for market diversification are valid, supply chains cannot be redirected overnight and will take time to materialise. This highlights the immediate severe impact on regions and producers who are heavily reliant on the US market,” said Kotzé. – Susan Marais, Plaas Media
