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The Southern African citrus industry has entered the 2025 season with cautious optimism. Dr Boitshoko Ntshabele, CEO of the Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGA), reports a favourable outlook in his weekly reports despite ongoing challenges. Initially predicted at 171,1 million 15kg cartons, exports are now expected at 171,5 million cartons, up from 164,5 million last season. This includes exports from South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Botswana, with South Africa as the largest contributor.
The total covers various citrus types, including late mandarins (Leanri, Orri, Nadorcott/Tango), lemons, navel and Valencia oranges, grapefruit, and early mandarins (Satsumas, Nova, and Clementines). Early-season exports mainly consist of lemons and grapefruit. This growth is driven by new orchards maturing and entering full production, following an intensive planting phase in recent years.
Citrus export estimates for 2025
CGA has released updated estimates for the 2025 season, reflecting strong performance across several citrus categories, particularly in the late mandarin segment. The late mandarin varieties are showing growth projections:
- Leanri: Estimated at 2,1 million 15kg cartons, slightly down from 2,2 million cartons in 2024.
- Orri: Forecasted to remain stable at 2,1 million 15kg cartons, the same as in 2024.
- Nadorcott/Tango: Shows the most significant growth, with an estimated 25,7 million 15kg cartons, up from 23,3 million cartons last year.
- Other late Mandarin varieties: Expected to reach 3,2 million 15kg cartons, an increase from 2,7 million cartons in 2024.
Projections for other citrus categories indicate steady growth or minor adjustments compared to the previous season:
- Lemons: Initially estimated at 32,9 million 15kg cartons, reflecting a 5% decrease from 2024. However, the latest CGA update shows an increase to a new estimated total of 33,2 million cartons.
- Navel oranges: Estimated at 26,1 million 15kg cartons, showing a 5% increase from last year.
- Valencia oranges: Forecasted at 52 million 15kg cartons, a 6% rise from the 2024 season.
- Grapefruit: Estimated at 13,5 million 17kg cartons, also reflecting a 6% increase compared to 2024.
- Satsuma (early mandarin): Remains unchanged at 1,8 million 15kg cartons, the same as the previous season.
- Nova (early mandarin): Projected at 4,5 million 15kg cartons, marking a 2% increase from 2024.
- Clementine (early mandarin): Expected to reach 5,4 million 15kg cartons, representing a 10% growth from last season.
Lemon estimate revised upward
According to the CGA’s most recent packed and shipped report, the lemon forecast has been revised upward, increasing from the original 32,9 million to 33,2 million 15kg cartons. However, estimates for grapefruit, mandarins, navels, and Valencia oranges remain unchanged in the latest forecast, as seen in Table 1 below:
Export destinations
South Africa currently exports the largest share of its citrus to European countries, followed by the Middle East, Southeast Asia, the United Kingdom, North America, Russia, Asia, and various African countries and islands. See the export destinations in Figure 1 below.
Most citrus exports are shipped through Durban Port, which handles approximately 50% of the country’s citrus volume. Additional exports are dispatched from the ports of Cape Town, Port Elizabeth, and Ngqura (Coega). A smaller volume is also exported via the Port of Maputo in Mozambique.
Ongoing challenges
Dr Ntshabele highlights several persistent challenges facing South African citrus growers. Chief among them are logistical inefficiencies at ports. A recent CGA report revealed that the industry suffered direct and indirect losses that totalled R5,2 billion during the 2024 season due to poor logistics. While Transnet has begun upgrading and acquiring new equipment, long-term solutions need stronger public sector involvement, Dr Ntshabele stressed. Other challenges include:
- Tariff uncertainty in the United States, including a potential 30% import duty, could severely impact South African citrus.
- Existing tariffs in other key markets which reduce competitiveness.
- Restricted market access to the European Union due to what the CGA views as unnecessary and unscientific phytosanitary regulations, such as those related to Citrus Black Spot (CBS) and False Codling Moth (FCM).
Dr Ntshabele warns that although the US market represents only 4 to 6% of South African’s citrus exports, it plays a vital role in supporting rural economies in the Northern and Western Cape provinces.
Market access is a priority
He reports that market access remains a top priority for the CGA, which is focussed on retaining existing markets and expanding into new ones. The US market, although small in volume, offers high value, and the CGA continues to advocate for its importance in discussions with US policymakers.
The European Union’s ongoing phytosanitary restrictions are being challenged through a dispute process at the World Trade Organization (WTO). The CGA argues these regulations are not based on sound science and create unnecessary barriers to trade.
Meanwhile, markets such as China, Japan, and India offer significant growth opportunities. However, high tariffs and cumbersome phytosanitary protocols continue to hinder access. In response, the CGA conducted a working visit to India in April to address trade barriers, and recently met with the Chinese Embassy to advance discussions on market access.
The CGA calls for stronger government-industry cooperation to secure trade deals, improve infrastructure, and streamline exports.
Logistical improvements
Meanwhile, there are positive developments on the logistics front. Last year, the global container shipping company MSC announced enhancements to its Eastern Cape Express Service, improving the speed and efficiency of fresh fruit exports from the region to Europe.
Similarly, Hapag-Lloyd introduced new shipping services tailored to South African citrus exports, further supporting the industry’s global reach. These upgrades are a step in the right direction, but broader systemic improvements on port level and in trade relations remain essential to ensure the long-term success of the citrus industry. – Christal-Lize Muller, Plaas Media
For more information contact Loftus Marais at loftus@resolvecommunications.co.za
