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The ongoing foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak is placing sustained pressure on South Africa’s livestock sector, with industry leaders and government officials warning that its effects now reach far beyond individual farms.
Speaking during a panel discussion at NAMPO Harvest Day, AgriSA chief executive officer Johann Kotzé said the sector faces a prolonged and complex disruption. He noted that while earlier outbreaks were contained more effectively, the current situation is harder to quantify because of its scale and persistence.
Estimates presented during the session put export losses alone at more than R3,5 billion, with over R1,8 billion already lost in 2025 and 2026.
Value-chain disruption widens impact
Panellists said the consequences of FMD are being felt across the red meat value chain, from producers to processors and retailers. “Movement restrictions were followed, auctions were halted, and the impact didn’t stop at the farm gate,” the panel heard, as disruptions spread to export markets and downstream businesses.
Because the livestock sector is so interconnected, a single outbreak can trigger cascading effects, with participants describing the disease as one that ‘ripples outward’ across the system.
Beyond immediate production losses, speakers warned of long-term reputational damage in export markets, where confidence depends on consistent disease control and traceability.
Shift to vaccination and long-term management
A central theme of the discussion was the shift to widespread vaccination as the main tool to stabilise the industry. Agriculture minister John Steenhuisen said the outbreak has prompted a reassessment of South Africa’s biosecurity approach, including a move away from trying to exclude the disease entirely.
“We have an opportunity to rebuild our biosecurity infrastructure,” Steenhuisen said, adding that a mass vaccination programme is now central to the response.
South Africa is expected to follow a model similar to Argentina’s, where FMD is managed through vaccination rather than full eradication, allowing continued participation in international trade under controlled conditions.
Veterinarian Dr Dirk Verwoerd, who has experience in feedlot systems, said the goal is not disease absence but stability. “International trade hinges on guarantees of stability and risk control,” he said, describing vaccination as essential to more predictable production conditions.
Public-private coordination is critical
Speakers repeatedly highlighted the need for closer coordination between government and industry, describing the current response as a shift towards a more integrated model. “We cannot work in silos anymore,” Verwoerd said, calling for a formalised public-private partnership in disease control and export market development.
Steenhuisen acknowledged challenges in state veterinary capacity, including resource constraints and high vacancy rates, and said collaboration with industry is needed to implement vaccination at scale.
The creation of joint structures, including a ministerial task team of public and private stakeholders, is intended to improve coordination and decision-making during the response.
Vaccination rollout and supply constraints
According to the government, vaccine supply has improved after initial constraints, with millions of doses imported since early in the year and additional supply agreements secured. Steenhuisen said the country now aims to vaccinate the national herd in multiple rounds, with ongoing imports needed to sustain the programme.
However, panellists noted that vaccination alone will not end the outbreak, with biosecurity, traceability and movement controls all playing supporting roles.
“Vaccination is not a silver bullet,” industry representatives said, emphasising the need for a broader systems-based response.
Trade, traceability, and producer-level constraints
While the long-term strategy focusses on regaining market access, producers raised concerns about immediate operational challenges, including movement restrictions and the inability to trade livestock.
Stud breeder Kobus Bester said current conditions are undermining commercial viability. “If I report now, my farm is going to be closed down. No one can survive that,” he said, highlighting reluctance among some producers to report outbreaks because of the regulatory consequences.
Traceability systems were identified as essential for reopening markets and enabling controlled trade, although speakers cautioned that implementation remains uneven across regions and production systems.
Outlook: stabilisation over eradication
Modelling presented during the panel suggests it could take up to 24 months to bring the outbreak under control, depending on the effectiveness of vaccination and coordination efforts.
Participants said the sector will likely need to adapt to living with FMD under controlled conditions, rather than expecting a return to its previous disease-free status. “We have to learn to live with this disease,” Verwoerd said, and reiterated that stability, rather than elimination, is the realistic goal.
The discussion concluded that although the outbreak has exposed structural weaknesses, it may also accelerate reforms in biosecurity, industry coordination, and market access frameworks. – Nikilene Steenkamp, Plaas Media
