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Despite the conflict in the Middle East and its knock-on effects on the worldwide agricultural industry, the South African citrus industry is once again showing that it can weather many storms. With the citrus export season approaching, the Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGA) has released its first set of export estimates, reflecting expected volume of citrus available for export. The estimates point to continued growth in the industry.
According to the report, estimates of all citrus varieties, excluding late mandarins which make up the bulk of the mandarin crop, are now available. Although these figures will only be released in about a month’s time, current trends suggest total citrus exports could increase by around 3 to 5%, reaching between 210 and 215 million 15kg cartons.
Uncertain global environment
Dr Boitshoko Ntshabele, chief executive officer of the CGA, said they are acutely aware of the uncertainties the industry faces with the current war in the Middle East’s potential effect on demand, shipping, fuel availability, and input costs. “However, if these risks are managed effectively, steady growth towards another record export season is within reach,” he said.
He added that the CGA has strengthened its data and market intelligence capabilities, along with specialist monitoring and review forums, to enable timely adjustments to estimates and to support logistics planning across the value chain. While the global environment will likely mean that everyone will need to be highly responsive and adaptable, the industry has successfully navigated similar challenges in the past.
Balanced crops and strong lemon growth
The breakdown of variety estimates indicates a balanced crop for this year, with fruit of high quality.
A total of 45,9 million 15kg cartons of lemons can be exported to key markets, which represents a 10% increase from last year’s exported figure of 41,6 million cartons. The increase is due to a significant number of young trees coming into production in the Sundays River Valley, as well as the Senwes region (Marble Hall and Groblersdal) following hail damage in past seasons.
Navel oranges ease after record year
Navel orange exports are forecast at 30 million 15kg cartons, a 5% decline from 2025’s record exports. However, it is still in line with the long-term growth trajectory, being a 10% increase from 2024 volumes.
The category is also divided into early/midseason navels (13,4 million cartons) and late navels (16,6 million cartons).
Valencia crop normalises
The Valencia orange export crop increases 1,6% from last year’s 62 million 15kg cartons to 63 million cartons this year.
Last year’s exceptional volumes were driven by optimal growing conditions across most regions. In the current season, yields are expected to normalise, although regional differences need to be considered. Favourable weather in the northern regions underpins increased estimates of between 4 and 17% above 2025 volumes. The floods that occurred in January did not cause significant damage to orchards.
Meanwhile, the southern growing regions in the Eastern and Western Cape are expected to see declines of between 7 and 20%, largely due to drier conditions over the summer and the natural occurrence of alternate bearing in citrus orchards. Despite this, production remains higher than in 2024. An increase in Valencia production in Zimbabwe, along with new participation from Botswana and Mozambique, is also notable.
Grapefruit shows strong increase
Grapefruit exports are estimated at 15,7 million 17kg cartons. This is a significant 16% increase from last year’s 13,5 million cartons. The increase can mostly be attributed to optimal growing conditions, although early feedback suggests a somewhat smaller fruit size. Wet conditions in the northern areas have disrupted early harvesting to an extent.
The estimates of three early mandarin varieties are available. The Satsuma season is likely to close around 1,5 million 15kg cartons, similar to 2024. The Nova season shows a 3% decrease to 5,6 million 15kg cartons, while Clementines project a decrease of 4%, with an expected export figure of 6,2 million 15kg cartons.
The estimates for late mandarin varieties will be communicated later. Meetings of all the variety focus groups are held on a regular basis during the season to track and update estimates as needed.
Market access and logistics
Dr Ntshabele said that, despite global instability, progress depends on addressing factors within South Africa’s control.
“A number of constraints can be addressed to secure the future growth of our industry. Enhanced market access to China, India and the United States would provide a meaningful boost to the industry. The European Union’s unnecessary and unscientific plant health requirements for South African citrus is also a constraint and remains unresolved. Improved logistics efficiency, especially in the rail network, will require greater participation from the private sector.”
The citrus industry employs 140 000 people at farm level and is South Africa’s largest agricultural export industry. The industry’s projected long-term growth has the potential to create tens of thousands of new jobs and boost the development of rural communities across the country. – Media statement, Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa
