China soya bean export deal, a bonus for local industry

Estimated reading time: 6 minutes

During the 2025/26 summer grain production season, it quickly became evident that South Africa was likely to yield record maize and soya bean crops. The mid-summer drought during late January and early February introduced some uncertainty, but the rain resumed in time for most parts of the country. The first confirmation of an expected record production came on 23 April this year, when the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) forecast a maize crop of 16,8 million tonnes and a soya bean crop of 2,8 million tonnes.

These expectations of record production were accompanied by anticipated price declines and subsequent exports. Early expectations for maize were around 3,6 million tonnes, and 600 000 tonnes for soya beans. Because the South African soya bean industry is relatively new to the export market, it faced additional challenges. Historically, the yellow maize export programme has received preference at the Durban port export terminals. This potentially led to limited soya bean exports, which turned out to be the case again this season.

This means that relatively small quantities of soya beans were exported by container. This limitation was partly due to late rains that delayed the harvesting programme. Other contributing factors included tight inland stocks and demand from local crushing industries, which meant limited stocks were initially available for export. Therefore, despite a record soya bean crop, deep-sea exports appeared likely to remain minimal.

SACOTA’s role in soya bean exports

The South African Cereals and Oilseeds Trade Association (SACOTA) prepared for the export programme, including the annual export registration programme for China, which went online. This was a tripartite initiative among SACOTA, the Department of Agriculture’s directorate of inspections, and eCert, which facilitates e-phytosanitary certificates for the department. All interested traders, export terminals, and silos had to be registered, as required by China. Similarly, the Indonesian market, which opened two years ago, requires the registration of exporters to access its market.

SACOTA also verified the status of newly approved GMO events to ensure that these soya bean and maize events, approved for general release in South Africa, corresponded with the requirements of the importing countries. Then, just as all the preparations were done, reports began to surface of a super El Niño that would affect South African agriculture towards the end of the year. The market reacted, and prices started to rise to protect local stocks, thereby preventing exports.

Table 1: JSE Commodity Derivatives Market (CDM) December 2026 soya bean price (Rand/ton).

Global opportunities open for SA exporters

China, in an effort to promote trade with Africa, made an offer under which all import duties on agricultural products entering China were unilaterally waived, without any corresponding concessions for Chinese exports. Prior to the zero-tariff preference scheme, South African soya beans carried a 3% duty. This provided South African exporters with an approximate $15/tonne advantage over other global export competitors in South America. South Africa also has an approximate $12 to 15/tonne geographical location freight advantage compared to the South American exporters.

Furthermore, because of geopolitical tensions, global markets have recently also been very volatile. If the futures market in Chicago or CMEGroup, the global benchmark, trades higher or lower, it does not necessarily mean the cash FOB market in Brazil or Argentina will immediately follow. This could offer another opportunity for South African exporters for a limited period. Because of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) traded commodity futures contracts, including soya beans, South African traders can hedge their local or export transactions weeks, if not months, in advance, similar to global traders on the CMEGroup exchange in Chicago, for example.

Export deal between China and South Africa

By taking advantage of all these factors, a multinational trading member of SACOTA managed to secure an export deal for approximately 200 000 tonnes of soya beans in November 2026. South Africa first exported soya beans to China in 2023, with three vessels totalling 147 000 tonnes. This will be the second transaction.

This is a much-needed boost for the local industry, especially to secure future market opportunities. China is the world’s largest importer of soya beans, importing approximately 100 to 110 million tonnes annually. It will probably mean that closing soya bean stocks at the end of the season February 2027 will now be much tighter.

The National Agricultural Marketing Council (NAMC), in its latest supply and demand estimates published on 31 July, predicted closing stocks of around 550 000 tonnes. Taking this Chinese deal and possibly other smaller export transactions into account, closing stocks could drop to below 350 000 tonnes. With deep-sea container exports to Indonesia and Malaysia, as well as cross-border exports to neighbouring Zimbabwe and Eswatini predicted to continue, estimated soya bean exports for the season could reach 510 000 tonnes. Figure 1 illustrates a possible soya bean export outcome scenario per country for the 2026/27 season.

Figure 1: The expected destination for soya bean exports and the estimated amount of soya beans expected to be exported for the 2026/27 marketing season.

Factors to consider

A word of caution, however, as global and local trade numbers are a moving target. Current high local prices will impact demand and transactions, especially those that allow for optional origin supplies. Crushing margins, trade discounts on processed products, etc. are only a few aspects that are continuously being assessed from week to week by industry participants. Already, a consignment of soya bean meal is scheduled for September imports into Cape Town, the first time in more than two years.

In normal years, South African soya beans are known for their high protein content of around 36 to 37% compared to the global benchmark of 34,5%, but lower oil content of around 18% compared to 18,5% globally. It should be noted that this year, many of the protein numbers recorded are lower than the global benchmark, and the oil content is higher. The moisture content of South African soya beans is also usually less than that of its global competitors.

Compiled by Juan-Pierre Kotzé, manager of research and projects, and Dr André van der Vyver, executive director of SACOTA. For more information, contact Juan-Pierre Kotzé on 076 814 5888 or at info@sacota.co.za, or Dr André van der Vyver on 083 412 0287 or at andre.vandervyver@sacota.co.za. – Press release, SACOTA