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South Africa’s 2025 summer field crop* outlook has been revised upwards, with commercial maize production expected to reach 15,8 million tons, the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) announced recently when it released its seventh production forecast for summer crops.
This is a 5,13% increase (771 075 tons) on the previous forecast of 15,03 million tons and represents a 22,97% jump compared to the 2024 harvest. The average national yield is now estimated at around 6,09t/ha.
Maize distribution
The Free State, Mpumalanga, and North West provinces – the country’s main maize-growing regions – are projected to deliver 82% of the total crop.
White maize production is now forecast at 8,08 million tonnes, up 4,47% from the previous estimate, with an average yield of 5,05t/ha. Yellow maize output has also been revised upwards by 5,83% to 7,72 million tonnes, with a strong yield forecast of 7,74t/ha. The CEC attributes the higher maize forecasts to increased producer deliveries reported by the South African Grain Information Service, SAGIS.
Forecast summary
Other summer crops show mixed trends:
- Sunflower seed: The forecast remains unchanged at 708 300 tons. The expected average yield stands at around 1,27t/ha.
- Soybeans: The expectation has increased to 2,75 million tons, up 1,12% from the last forecast. The expected yield stands at around 2,39t/ha.
- Groundnuts: Remains steady at 61 389 tons. An average yield of 1,28t/ha is expected.
- Sorghum: Unchanged at 137 970 tons with an expected average yield of 3,35t/ha.
- Dry beans: The forecast was raised by 16,3% to 86 407 tons. The expected average yield currently stands at 1,89t/ha.
According to Wandile Sihlobo, Agbiz chief economist, they are encouraged that South Africa is experiencing a recovery season for its grain and oilseed production, although some areas may face quality challenges, particularly with white maize. “Still, the quality issues do not fundamentally alter the available volume for milling acceptability or food supplies, although they may weigh on farmers’ profitability. We continue to see the benefit of the ample harvest in the softening commodity prices, which bodes well for consumer food price inflation.”
The CEC is set to release the eighth production forecast for 2025 summer field crops on 30 September. – Susan Marais, Plaas Media
* Note: This estimate is for a calendar year, so production season 2024/2025 = 2025.
