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While a slight decline in most winter cereal crops is expected, South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee (CEC)’s eighth production forecast for summer crops indicates that the 2025 production season for most summer grains will surpass the previous year’s harvest. This was revealed on the last day of September when the figures became available at noon.
Table 1: Summer crops – area planted and eighth production forecast: 2025 (Source: CEC)
| Crop | Area planted | 8th forecast | 7th forecast | Area planted | Final crop | Change |
| 2025 | 2025 | 2025 | 2024 | 2024 | % | |
| Ha | Tonnes | Tonnes | Ha | Tonnes | ||
| (A) | (B) | (C) | (D) | (E) | (B) /(C) | |
| Commercial: | ||||||
| White maize | 1 599 700 | 8327650 | 8 081 350 | 1 554 750 | 6 055 000 | 3,05% |
| Yellow maize | 997 000 | 7850850 | 7 720 900 | 1 081 500 | 6 795 000 | 1,68% |
| Total Maize | 2 596 700 | 16178500 | 15 802 250 | 2 636 250 | 12 850 000 | 2,38% |
| Sunflower seed | 555 700 | 708300 | 708 300 | 529 000 | 632 000 | – |
| Soya beans | 1 151 000 | 2753125 | 2 753 125 | 1 150 500 | 1 848 000 | – |
| Groundnuts | 48 125 | 61389 | 61 389 | 41 200 | 52 000 | – |
| Sorghum | 41 150 | 144665 | 137 970 | 42 100 | 98 000 | 4,85% |
| Dry beans | 45 620 | 90556 | 86 407 | 39 550 | 50 495 | 4,80% |
| TOTAL | 4 438 295 | 19936535 | 19 549 440 | 4 438 600 | 15 530 495 | 1,98% |
| Non-commercial maize | ||||||
| Total Maize | 358 000 | 621500 | 621 500 | 347 000 | 575 000 | – |
| Maize: Commercial + non-commercial | ||||||
| Total Maize RSA | 2 954 700 | 16 800 000 | 16 423 750 | 2 983 250 | 13 425 000 | 2,29% |
Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist of Agbiz, said this paints an optimistic picture for the summer grains and oilseed production season, with only two more estimations still to follow. “The picture is unlikely to change from the positive indication that we currently have.”
Sihlobo ascribed the improvement to a few things: An annual uptick in all crops, which was supported by favourable rainfall and decent area plantings. The figures also look favourable as the country came from a lower base in the previous season. “This ample crop will likely continue to put downward pressure on prices, which bodes well for a moderating path of consumer food price inflation.”
Summer field crops
According to the CEC, the size of the expected commercial maize crop has been set at 16,178 million tonnes, which is 2,38% or 376 250 tonnes more than the previous forecast of 15,802 million tonnes. The expected yield for maize is 6,23 t/ha.
The production forecast of white maizeincreased by 3,05% or 246 300 tonnes from 8,081 million tonnes to 8,328 million tonnes. The area estimate for white maize is 1,600 million ha, and the expected yield is 5,21 t/ha.
Figure 1: Total maize production in South Africa from 2015 to 2025. (Source: CEC)
In the case of yellow maize, the production forecast is 7,851 million tonnes, which is 1,68% or 129 950 tonnes more than the 7,721 million tonnes of the previous forecast.
The main reason for the increase in the production forecast for white and yellow maize is due to higher producer deliveries as reported by the South African Grain Information Services (Sagis).
The production forecast for sunflower seed remains unchanged at 708 300 tonnes. The area estimate for sunflower seed is 555 700ha, while the expected yield is 1,27 t/ha.
The production forecast for soya beans also remains unchanged at 2,753 million tonnes. The estimated area planted to soya beans is 1,151 million ha, with an expected yield of 2,39 t/ha.
Figure 2: Total sunflower seed production in South Africa from 2015 to 2025. (Source: CEC)
The expected groundnut crop remains unchanged at 61 389 tonnes. For groundnuts, the area estimate is 48 125ha, with an expected yield of 1,28 t/ha.
The production forecast for sorghum is 144 665 tonnes, which is 4,85% or 6 695 tonnes more than the previous forecast of 137 970 tonnes. The area estimate for sorghum is 41 150ha, and the expected yield is 3,52 t/ha.
In the case of dry beans, the production forecast increased by 4,80% or 4 150 tonnes from 86 407 tonnes to 90 556 tonnes. The area estimate of dry beans is 45 620ha, with an expected yield of 1,99 t/ha.
Figure 3: Total soya bean production in South Africa from 2015 to 2025. (Source: CEC)
Winter cereal crops
While it’s still early days, the CEC’s second production forecast for winter cereal crops is slightly less rosy than over the previous season. The expected production of wheat is 2,034 million tonnes, which is 0,45% (9 150 tonnes) less than the previous month’s forecast of 2,044 million tonnes, whilst the expected yield is 3,93 t/ha.
The expected production in the Western Cape is 1,053 million tonnes (52%), which is 54 450 tonnes less than the 1,107 million tonnes of the previous month’s forecast. In the Northern Cape, 308 000 tonnes (15%) are expected to be produced – 3 850 tonnes more than the 304 150 tonnes forecasted in the previous month. In the Free State, the expected production is 302 100 tonnes (15%), which is 21 600 tonnes more than the previous month’s expected crop of 280 500 tonnes.
The area estimate for wheat was revised to 517 300ha, which is 5 600ha more than the 511 700ha of the previous month’s area estimate. An estimated 363 000ha or 70% is planted in the Western Cape, 57 000ha or 11 % in the Free State, and 40 000ha or 8% in the Northern Cape.
Similarly, the production forecast for barleyis 346 430 tonnes, which is 6 245 tonnes (1,77%) less than the previous month’s crop forecast of 352 675 tonnes. The area planted is estimated at 96 950ha, while the expected yield is 3,57 t/ha.
The expected canola cropis 311 640 tonnes, which is 8 403 tonnes (2,63%) less than the previous month’s crop forecast of 320 043 tonnes. This is, however, still the largest canola crop on record. The area estimate for canola is 174 515ha, with an expected yield of 1,79 t/ha.
The expected crop for oats for the 2025 season is 57 213 tonnes, and the area planted is 35 520ha. The expected yield is 1,61 t/ha.
In the case of sweet lupines, the production forecast is 21 000 tonnes. The area estimate of sweet lupines is 21 000ha, with an expected yield of 1,00 t/ha. – Susan Marais, Plaas Media
The ninth production forecast for summer field crops for 2025 and the third production forecast for winter cereal crops will be released by the CEC on 28 October 2025.
