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Water is a vital and limited resource necessary for all human activities, utilised by various users such as the agricultural, domestic, and industrial sectors. Competition for water resources among the sectors will affect the availability and usage.
Population growth, urbanisation, and climate-related challenges are expected to increase the competition for limited water resources. The agricultural industry is the biggest consumer of freshwater, contributing significantly to global water stress. Water is crucial for sustaining livelihoods, and its scarcity poses significant challenges for agricultural production, particularly in areas prone to frequent droughts.
The following challenges have been identified:
- The scarcity of water resources in South Africa remains an enormous challenge to all water users within the agricultural, industrial, and domestic sectors.
- Targeting producers’ attitudes can enhance adaptive behaviour.
- Strengthen social support systems to improve adaptation to climate variability.
- Ensuring access to resources is crucial for promoting sustainable water use.
According to the World Bank, in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Africa is considered the fifth most water-scarce country, making it particularly susceptible to climate-related challenges in agriculture. This is concerning because agriculture is often viewed as a catalyst for economic change and advancement, ensuring household food security and income. Climate variability and change play a significant role in the production of agricultural commodities and the sustainability of water use within the sector.
This paper evaluates the impact of climate variability on the adaptive water-use behaviour of sugarcane producers by determining the factors that influence their adaptation decisions in response to climate variability. To achieve this objective, a survey, the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), and structural equation modelling were utilised.
Results
Table 1 illustrates the path coefficients, the sample mean, standard deviation, t-statistics, and p-values obtained from the bootstrapping procedure. The results show that subjective norms significantly affect the intention to adapt to climate variability (p < 0,05). Similarly, attitude significantly affects intention (p < 0,10). Interestingly, the results show that perceived behavioural control does not significantly affect intention (p > 0,10).
The engagement of a producer in a specific behaviour could be impacted by the social context in which they produce sugarcane. The social pressure that a producer experiences might contribute to their decision-making and intention to adapt to climate variability.
The results for the path coefficient, t-statistic, and p-value for subjective norms are presented in Table 1. The path coefficient value of 0,81 (p<0,05) indicates a positive and significant relationship between subjective norms and the intention to adapt to climate variability. Thus, if subjective norms increase by one standard deviation, the intention to adapt to climate variability is expected to increase by 0,281 standard deviations, assuming all other variables in the model are held constant. Sugarcane producers who experience social pressure towards adapting to climate variability are more likely to implement such strategies.
The results showed that subjective norms have a positive relationship with the intention of sugarcane producers to adapt to climate variability
The results for the path coefficient, t-statistic, and p-value for attitude are presented in Table 1. The path coefficient value of 0,349 (p<0,1) indicates a positive and significant relationship between attitude and the intention to adapt to climate variability.
Consequently, if attitude increases by one standard deviation, the intention to adapt to climate variability is expected to increase by 0,349 standard deviations, assuming all other variables in the model are held constant. Sugarcane producers with a positive attitude toward climate variability are significantly more likely to adopt strategies to withstand the effects of variable climate conditions. A positive attitude in this context means they are open to change and willing to take action to cope with climate variability.
Table 1: The results from the bootstrapping technique. (Source: Authors’ compilation)
| Constructs | Path coefficients | Sample mean | Standard deviation | t- statistics | p- values |
| Attitude → intention | 0,349 | 0,327 | 0,206 | 1,690* | 0,091* |
| Subjective norms → intention | 0,281 | 0,288 | 0,125 | 2,244** | 0,025** |
| Perceived behavioural control → intention | 0,051 | 0,099 | 0,191 | 0,265 | 0,791 |
Note: *p < 0,1; **p < 0,05; ***p < 0,01 and *t > 1,65; **t > 1,96; ***t > 2,57.
These findings suggest that improving producers’ attitudes and strengthening social support systems can enhance their intentions to adopt adaptive strategies for climate variability. Nonetheless, other unexamined factors may also influence producers’ adaptive intentions, indicating a need for further investigation into additional variables that could play a role in their water-use behaviour.
Overall, the findings suggest that interventions targeting attitudes, social support, and access to resources can improve adaptive behaviours. The study offers valuable guidance for policymakers and stakeholders to develop strategies that promote sustainable water use among producers in response to climate variability.
In conclusion
Agriculture plays a pivotal role in the economy of South Africa but remains the largest withdrawer of freshwater resources compared to the domestic and industrial sectors. This leads to many debates surrounding the efficiency and sustainability of water use within the agricultural industry. Several factors could cause the rise of water scarcity in South Africa, one of them being climate variability.
The variability in climatic conditions plays a substantial part in the water-use behaviour of agricultural producers because they are the primary water users in South Africa. This creates an urgent need to understand producers’ decisions better and how climate variability impacts their water-use behaviour.
The study also provided a basis for understanding the water-use behaviour of sugarcane producers in South Africa, which could now be applied to other crop production areas. The findings can support policymakers and stakeholders in various irrigation schemes in South Africa in implementing the necessary policies and guidelines to enhance the water-use behaviour of producers and ensure that those measures directly target producers’ intention to adapt to climate variability.
The results have several important implications, which can be seen from two perspectives. From a theoretical perspective, the study extended the application of the TPB to the context of agriculture, particularly the adaptation to climate variability. This highlights the relevance of psychological constructs in understanding producers’ adaptive behaviours.
From a practical perspective, the results suggest that interventions aimed at improving producers’ attitudes towards adaptation, reinforcing positive social norms, and enhancing perceived control over adaptation practices could effectively increase the adaptive intentions of sugarcane producers in South Africa.
Acknowledgements: We acknowledge and thank the Water Research Commission of South Africa for funding the project: Assessing the Social and Economic Impact of Changed Water Use Behaviour in Selected Production and Irrigation Scheme in South Africa, contract/project number (C20222023-00798). For more information, contact Prof Yonas T Bahta at bahtay@ufs.ac.za. – Heinrich Kotzé, Prof Yonas Bahta, Prof Henry Jordaan and Markus Monteiro, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of the Free State
