Estimated reading time: 4 minutes
Meat prices continue to rise faster than most other food categories. With a year-on-year increase of just over 13%, meat prices were the main driver of South Africa’s food inflation in January this year. However, agricultural economists believe consumers should be hopeful, as there is light at the end of the tunnel.
What the numbers say
According to January data from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA), overall food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation remained unchanged from December at 4,4% year-on-year. Within this basket, meat stood out with the highest annual inflation rate of 13,5%, despite a slight month-on-month decline of 0,9%.
Beef has been particularly affected. Retail prices for beef mince rose by as much as 44,8% year-on-year, while rump steak, sirloin, and chuck increased between 31 and 35%. Pork and lamb cuts have also seen substantial increases, with pork chops up 22,8% and leg of lamb increasing by 15,6% compared to a year earlier.
Gerhard van der Burgh, analyst for the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP), explains that the primary driver of elevated domestic meat prices remains disease-related supply constraints. Persistent outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) have disrupted cattle production and marketing channels, resulting in lower slaughter numbers and carcass weights below long-term norms. Average A2/A3 beef carcass prices increased 17,5% year-on-year, while weaner calf prices climbed 22,1%, indicating tightening supply conditions.
The pork industry is facing similar challenges, Van der Burgh adds. Pig carcass prices surged 27,7% year-on-year, due to both African swine fever (ASF) and FMD. Pig slaughter numbers declined by 8,3% year-on-year, underscoring decreasing availability. Although poultry has been less severely affected by avian influenza this season, the prices of individually quick-frozen chicken still increased by 6,7% year-on-year.
Slight global relief
International market conditions offer only limited relief. The Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) meat price index recorded a slight month-on-month decline, yet remains 6,1% higher than a year ago. Although global bovine and pig meat prices have softened recently due to improved supply in Brazil and weaker European demand, these trends have not resulted in significant domestic price easing.
While a stronger rand and falling feed costs, supported by sharply lower maize prices, have benefited poultry producers, these gains have not yet filtered meaningfully through to retail beef and pork prices.
Looking ahead, BFAP expects that the trajectory of meat prices will depend largely on the effectiveness of disease containment measures and the pace at which slaughter volumes recover. Until supply normalises, meat is likely to remain the main contributor to food inflation pressures.
“We are witnessing a lag effect,” Van der Burgh notes, pointing out that R42/kg for a weaner calf is not a lot if producers had to pay R500/tonne more for maize than they currently do in order to feed their animals.
The fact that South Africa has become a net exporter of meat in recent years also keeps prices elevated. Van der Burgh adds that if prices remained high, this dynamic could shift, creating a point at which importing more affordable meat becomes a likely option.
Industry perspective
Dr Marlene Louw, CEO of the South African Pork Producer’s Organisation, says both FMD and ASF have had a devastating impact on the national pig herd, which has stifled pork production. However, Dr Louw said that higher retail prices should stimulate investment in the sector, which should boost pork production volumes and, in turn, help bring pork prices down. Louw expects prices to begin easing by around 2027.
Dr Frikkie Maré, CEO of the National Red Meat Producers Organisation, says they’ve already seen a drop in sheep and beef carcass prices in late-January/early February. “We have seen double year-on-year inflation figures since last March, and one tends to forget that,” Dr Maré said, adding that the month-to-month changes are less drastic, with only 0,9% difference between December 2025 and January 2026. “Prices were still relatively low last January and February.”
According to him, consumer prices are likely to ease soon considering the year-on-year basis. “We might even see some prices decrease compared to last year. Consumers should not panic about further price increases. We expect prices to start coming down soon. – Susan Marais, Plaas Media
