Estimated reading time: 4 minutes
The Crop Estimates Liaison Committee (CELC) recently convened to oversee the finalisation of crop production figures for key commercial crops for the 2024 production season. These crops include commercial white and yellow maize, sunflower seed, soybeans, groundnuts, and sorghum. The figures were revised using the latest published data from the South African Grain Information Services (SAGIS), which tracks actual deliveries, and other relevant surveys. The National Department of Agriculture (NDA) conducted a utilisation survey to assess on-farm usage and retention, which was further supplemented by the telephonic survey conducted by the National Crop Statistics Consortium (NCSC). These data sources enabled a recalculation of the final crop production numbers.
Maize production adjusted upwards
The recalculated commercial maize crop, stands at 12,85 million tons, which is an increase of 0.99% (125,950 tons) over the initial estimate of 12,72 million tons. The breakdown shows that white maize reached 6,055 million tons, marking a 0,80% increase (47,900 tons) compared to the initial estimate. Meanwhile, yellow maize production increased by 1,16% (78,050 tons), bringing the final figure to 6,795 million tons.
Sunflower seed, soybeans, groundnuts, and sorghum adjustments
In contrast, the commercial sunflower seed crop is slightly lower than expected. The final figure is 632,000 tons, 0,59% (3,750 tons) less than the earlier estimate of 635,750 tons. Soybean production increased by 0,42%, reaching 1,848 million tons, while groundnuts saw a modest increase of 0,49% (255 tons), with the final crop totalling 52,000 tons. The sorghum crop also saw a slight increase of 0,19% (190 tons), bringing the total to 98,000 tons.
Preliminary area estimates for 2025 summer crops
In a separate update, the preliminary area estimates for 2025 summer field crops were presented. These estimates are based on a non-probability survey conducted by the Directorate: Statistics and Economic Analysis of the NDA.
The preliminary area estimate for commercial maize is 2,646 million hectares, showing a slight increase of 0,38% (9,950 hectares) compared to the previous season. For white maize, the planted area is estimated at 1,600 million hectares, up 2,89% (44,950 hectares), while yellow maize area decreased by 3,24% (35,000 hectares), with an estimated 1,046 million hectares planted.
Other summer crops are also estimated as follows: Sunflower seed at 552,000 hectares (4,35% increase), soybeans at 1,122 million hectares (2,43% decrease), groundnuts at 46,175 hectares (12,08% increase), sorghum at 39,500 hectares (6,18% decrease), and dry beans at 45,500 hectares (15,04% increase).
Winter cereal crop forecasts
For the 2024 winter cereal season, wheat production is now estimated at 1,925 million tons, a slight decrease of 0,52% (10,100 tons) compared to earlier predictions. The expected yield for wheat is 3,81 tons per hectare. Production is expected to be highest in the Western Cape, with 1,067 million tons (55%) forecasted, while the Free State and Northern Cape are expected to contribute 225,400 tons (12%) and 296,400 tons (15%) respectively.
Other winter crops such as barley, canola, oats, and sweet lupines are also included in the report, with barley production remaining unchanged at 377,050 tons. Canola production is expected to decrease slightly by 2,71% to 287,445 tons, while oats production is pegged at 41,300 tons. Sweet lupines are expected to yield 19,200 tons for the season.
Agricultural machinery sales show positive outlook
In related news, South Africa’s tractor sales showed a positive uptick in January 2025, with a 27% increase year-on-year, reaching 457 units. This marks a recovery after 21 months of declining sales, though the total remains below the monthly average of the past two years. This growth is attributed to improving sentiment in the agricultural sector and base effects.
Despite this positive trend, the agricultural machinery sector faced a downturn in 2024, driven by several factors, including the mid-summer drought of the 2023–24 season, which affected crop yields and placed financial pressure on farmers. According to Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at Agbiz, higher interest rates further exacerbated these challenges, contributing to lower machinery sales. “However, with the easing of interest rates in 2025 and more favourable agricultural conditions on the horizon, machinery sales are expected to rebound. Farmers may begin replacing older machinery, particularly if regional conditions improve in the coming year,” he says. – Compiled by Plaas Media
