CEC releases area estimate and fifth production forecast of winter crops

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On 19 December this year, the National Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) released its area estimate and fifth production forecast of winter crops for the 2023 production season. The CEC comprises of officials from the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development (DALRRD), provincial Departments of Agriculture, various Agricultural Research Council (ARC) institutes (Soil, Climate and Water; Small Grains Institute, and Grain Crops Institute), the Bureau of Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) and Statistics SA.

Winter cereal crop forecast

The production forecast for wheat is 2,152 million tons, which is the same as the previous month’s forecast. The area planted is estimated at 537 950ha, while the expected yield is 4t/ha.

The expected production in the Western Cape is 1,131 million tons (53%), in the Northern Cape 310 000 tons (14%) and in the Free State 309 600 tons (14%).

The estimated area estimate for wheat in the Western Cape is 365 000 a or 68%, 72 000ha or 13% in the Free State, and 40 000ha or 7% in the Northern Cape.

Other crops

The production forecast for barley remained unchanged at 360 220 tons. The area planted is estimated at 107 600ha, while the expected yield is 3,35t/ha.

The expected canola crop remained unchanged at 237 450 tons. The area estimate for canola is 131 200ha, with an expected yield of 1,81t/ha.

The expected crop for oats for the 2023 season is 36 200 tons and the area planted is 27 500ha. The expected yield is 1,32t/ha.

In the case of sweet lupines, the production forecast is 16 800 tons, which is the same as the previous month’s forecast. The area estimate of sweet lupines is 16 000ha, with an expected yield of 1,05t/ha.

The sixth production forecast for winter cereals for 2023 will be released on 30 January 2024.

More information

Information is available on the internet at www.dalrrd.gov.za/old website/statistics or www.sagis.org.za, as from 14:30 on the date of the relevant meeting of the Crop Estimates Committee.