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At the beginning of 2024, two post-graduate students in the Department of Agricultural Economics at the University of the Free State started to research stud bull prices in South Africa. This project is aimed at establishing a database of stud bulls sold in the country, featuring the number of bulls sold, average prices obtained per year, etc.
Bulls from all breeds may participate as long as they qualify as stud animals. Breeds that have already agreed to participate in the project, and submitted their sale statistics are Bonsmara SA, the Brahman Cattle Breeders’ Society, Santa Gertrudis Cattle Breeders’ Society, and Simmentaler Cattle Breeders’ Society.
Price data
The sales price data for 2019 was used to establish a base price for the current project data. Sales statistics are presented in Table 1, and includes the number of bulls sold by the participating breeds, the average prices fetched per year, and the percentage change over five years (2019 to 2023).
Table 1: Average prices for stud bulls in South Africa, irrespective of breed.
| Year | Total bulls sold | % change in number sold | Average price | % change in price Y/Y | Index |
| 2019 | 3 133 | N/a | R49 090,92 | N/a | 100 |
| 2020 | 3 561 | 13,7% | R55 820,64 | 13,7% | 113,71 |
| 2021 | 4 164 | 16,9% | R66 766,04 | 19,6% | 136 |
| 2022 | 4 048 | -2,8% | R74 685,51 | 11,9% | 152,14 |
| 2023 | 4 122 | 1,8% | R70 575,46 | -5,5% | 143,76 |
A total of 19 028 stud bulls were sold over the five years. Note the steady increase in bulls sold from 3 133 in 2019 to 4 164 in 2021; thereafter, the numbers remained above 4 000 per year. In 2019, a total of 3 133 bulls were sold at an average price of R49 090,92 per bull. In 2020, the number of bulls sold increased to 3 561 or with 13,7%, and the average price rose to R55 820,64, a year-on-year (Y/Y) price change of R6 729,72 or 13,71%.
These price increases outpaced inflation, indicating a strong demand and possibly favourable economic conditions for cattle farming. The index rose to 113,71 which is a reflection of the market’s growth. The highest number of bulls, totalling 4 164, were sold the following year and the average price surged to R66 766,04. This represents a Y/Y price increase of R10 945,40 or 19,61%.
In 2022, the market experienced slight moderation. The number of bulls sold decreased to 4 048 (-2,8%), yet the average price increased to R74 685,51, with a Y/Y price change of R7 919,47 or 11,86%. As for 2023, there was a slight decline in market dynamics – the number of bulls sold increased marginally to 4 122 or 1,8% Y/Y, but the average price decreased to R70 575,46, resulting in a Y/Y price change of -R4 110,05 or -5,50%. Overall, the data indicates that the stud bull market in South Africa showed strong growth and resilience from 2019 to 2022, with prices consistently outpacing inflation and highlighting the value and demand of stud bulls in the country. The accumulated inflation of 43,76% over five years translates to an approximate increase of R21 484,54 in the average price of stud bulls.
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Monthly trends
Figures 1 and 2 provide insight into the number of bulls sold each month and the average bull prices from January to December, respectively. The peak in terms of the number of bulls sold (Figure 1) occurred between July and October in most years, with the highest sales numbers seen in September, suggesting a seasonal trend influenced by breeding seasons. After September the number of bulls sold per month decreased steadily towards the end of the year.
Bull prices (Figure 2) show less variation than the sales numbers with prices reaching a peak in July, reflecting high demand during this period. Lower prices were recorded in January and December, and this coincided with a much smaller number of bulls being sold during these months.
Figure 1: Trend in bulls sold per month.
Figure 2: Annual trend in bull auction prices.
Read more about Bonsmara auction price trends.
Future plans
This report sets out to form the basis of the annual national bull price indicator for South Africa. This data will help to gain valuable insight into the stud bull market in South Africa. In future, this data can be used to assist in determining the driving factors of the stud bull market in South Africa. The aim is to also collect and include sales data of stud female animals in future. – Meyer van der Merwe, Siphiwe Tshabalala and Dr WA Lombard, Department Agricultural Economics, University of the Free State
A word of thanks to the cattle breeds that are already part of the project, and provided access to all the auction data required. Should any other cattle breed societies be interested in joining the project, please contact us by sending an email to Dr WA Lombard LombardWA@ufs.ac.za or phone 082 922 5027.
